Market & Portfolio Update

Q4 2025

Prepared by the Investment Management Committee – January 2026

This report is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice. The content reflects Welsh & Taylor Wealth’s views as at January 2026 and may change without notice.

Market Overview

Overall, Q4 2025 was a steady quarter for global markets, with most major indices posting modest gains as investors became more confident that interest rates are likely to be cut by central banks in 2026. Generally, lower interest rates mean higher returns for risk assets like stocks and gold. Inflation continued easing in the US, UK and Europe, and corporate earnings held up better than expected.

At the same time, a surprising geopolitical story dominated headlines - the ongoing tensions around President Trump’s attempt to assert control over Greenland, which led to tariff threats and strong pushback from Europe. Although dramatic, these events caused far less disruption to markets than the headlines suggested, and markets largely took the noise in their stride however the market has sold off from its record highs.

Global markets remained resilient overall, and finished the year on a very positive note. Even with periods of volatility, 2025 was a good year to be an investor.

Why Markets Remain Strong

Below is a simple summary of how the major markets performed in Q4 2025:

In summary, most major markets delivered steady, positive returns, with Europe and the UK outperforming the US over the quarter - a reversal of the pattern seen in much of the last decade.

Trump-Greenland Overview

While the headlines around President Trump and Greenland may seem unusual, there are clear strategic reasons behind his push - reasons that help explain why this story dominated geopolitical news in Q4.

The key message remains the same - short‑term events, political or economic, are unpredictable. What matters is staying diversified, disciplined, and focused on long‑term goals.

Q4 once again showed that:

  • Markets can perform well even during political noise.

  • Earnings and economic fundamentals matter more than headlines.

  • Diversification across regions (US, UK, Europe, global) continues to be the most effective long‑term approach.

Portfolio Insights

Our Investment Committee regularly reviews portfolio positioning to ensure it remains aligned with market conditions, our long-term strategy, and the best interests of our clients.

Below is a summary of performance for our three core WTW portfolios:

Q4 2025 Portfolio Performance (1 October 2025 – 31 December 2025)

Assessing Value and Client Outcomes

As part of our ongoing commitment to delivering good outcomes for clients, we regularly assess whether our portfolios continue to meet their stated objectives and represent fair value. This involves reviewing performance, cost efficiency, risk management, and suitability against client expectations and the broader market environment.

Summary:
Across all three portfolios, performance has been positive and risk levels are consistent with client expectations and the stated aims of each strategy. The combination of robust investment governance, transparent costs, and strong early performance indicates that the WTW portfolio range is delivering good outcomes and represents fair value for clients.

How Do Our Portfolios Compare?

To assess performance objectively, we compare our portfolios against the Adviser Fund Index (AFI) - a recognised industry benchmark compiled by Financial Express from the recommended portfolios of leading UK financial advisers.

The AFI represents a realistic “market average” for professionally managed portfolios across three risk levels:

  • AFI Cautious - lower-risk portfolios with a higher allocation to bonds and cash.

  • AFI Balanced - medium-risk portfolios combining equities and fixed income for steady growth.

  • AFI Aggressive - higher-risk portfolios with greater exposure to global equities.

By comparing each WTW portfolio to its corresponding AFI benchmark, we can objectively determine whether our portfolios are providing clients with added value relative to the broader advice market.

Performance Comparison (1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025)

Why Our Portfolios Have Outperformed

Our portfolios have delivered stronger returns than the AFI benchmarks primarily due to three key factors:

Balancing Risk and Return

Importantly, all three of our portfolios have outperformed their respective AFI benchmarks without taking on more risk. This means clients benefited from more efficient portfolios - not riskier ones.  Outperformance came from diversification, discipline, and intelligent asset allocation, rather than betting on any single region or theme.

Summary

Across the range, each WTW portfolio has delivered superior outcomes versus its AFI benchmark since launch. This supports our core investment philosophy - that disciplined global diversification, cost control, and thoughtful risk management lead to better client outcomes over time. We remain confident that this approach will continue to add value as markets evolve into 2026.

Outlook on Gold

Gold has been one of the most reliable defensive assets during periods of global tension, and the geopolitical backdrop - including events like the U.S.–Europe confrontation over Greenland - strengthens the case for maintaining our 10-15% portfolio allocation.

Why We Continue to Hold Gold:

Why We Are Not Making Any Changes at This Time

As we enter 2026, our message remains simple and consistent: we are not making any changes to the portfolios at this time. The portfolios continue to behave exactly as intended - balancing growth, risk, diversification, and liquidity in a disciplined and repeatable way.

Looking Ahead

The outlook as we enter 2026:

  • Interest rate cuts in the US, UK and Europe appear increasingly likely.

  • Inflation continues to cool.

  • Corporate earnings remain supportive.

  • Geopolitics, including the US election cycle and the Greenland dispute, will create noise but should not drive long‑term decisions.

We will continue to monitor global developments closely and adjust portfolios only when it is in clients’ long‑term interests.

While we are not making any portfolio changes at this time, we are continuously reviewing opportunities that could strengthen long‑term client outcomes. Our investment process is deliberately forward‑looking, and there are several areas we are monitoring closely as we move into 2026.

Our 2026 Outlook

While all of these opportunities are promising, none of them justify immediate changes to portfolio positioning.  Any adjustments must:

  • Improve long‑term outcomes

  • Maintain liquidity

  • Preserve diversification

  • Fit within our disciplined investment process

For now, the best course of action is to stay patient and avoid short‑term thinking. We will revisit each of these potential enhancements as conditions evolve and will only implement them when it is clearly in clients’ long‑term interests.

Key Takeaways

This report is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice. The content reflects Welsh & Taylor Wealth’s views as at January 2026 and may change without notice.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

All investments carry risk. The portfolios described in this document are subject to market risk, currency risk, and, in some cases, liquidity and credit risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change in future. If you are unsure about the suitability of any investment, you should seek personal advice.

Welsh & Taylor Wealth is a trading name of WTW Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).